Coverage Lab · 2023 NFL season tracking
What tracking data can and can't tell you about a pass play, from the snap to the throw. Every number here is from a model scored on weeks it never trained on.
The coverage read
Held-out weeks 16–18 · scored once
How fast a coverage becomes readable
Accuracy naming the exact coverage (7 schemes), by time after the snap. The set-transformer watches every player at once, so it sees who carries whom and who passes receivers off.
Special teams · expected points
The best call on every fourth down, by distance to go and field position, with 7:30 left in a half, from nine seasons of play-by-play. Hatched cells are toss-ups, where the top two options are within 0.1 expected points.
Offence · route recognition
Quarterback or offensive line · 2023–2025
Same quarterback or team, next season
Pressure a QB adds beyond his line and opponent
Coverage choice · 2025 season, after training on 2023–24
Quarterbacks · 100+ dropbacks
Pre-registered · reported as it came out
We bet that topological holes in coverage would predict completions better than plain distance to the nearest defender. The test said no, for passes and for kick returns.